Champions Trophy Final 2025 - India v NZ - Preview
A look at the toss, the conditions, the playing XIs and match-ups that will decide the winners of the 2025 Champions Trophy.
Back in 2021, the T20 World Cup was held in UAE. The Kiwis trained hard in the afternoon heat and even had hydrations plans specific to each player’s needs. With such attention to detail and some solid execution, New Zealand surprised many and made it to the finals of that World Cup.
This time, fewer people are surprised since most fans have realized that the New Zealand side can never be underestimated. Their opposition is the team that’s been the favorite right from the beginning, India. Even though a format like this can result in upsets, it’s hard to argue that the best 2 teams have made the finals.
Will the toss really matter?
Probably not. India has played 4 games in Dubai so far and there hasn’t been too much dew, so the conditions don’t seem to ease up in the evening for the batters like the World Cup Final of 2023.
I think New Zealand would prefer to bat first. They lost to India while chasing 249, and have done well batting first - scoring 320 or more against both Pakistan and South Africa. India are unbeaten and can chase a total or defend one. I am not sure they have a strong preference, but either way Rohit has lost 14 tosses in a row so they may not even get to pick.
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Team Selection & Match Ups
Let’s look at New Zealand first. Four of New Zealand’s top 5 have a 100 in this tournament. Glenn Phillips has scored runs quickly and Mitch Santner at 8 is luxury most teams not named India would happily take. Devon Conway wasn’t in the best of form and Rachin Ravindra has more than justified his replacement.
From a bowling standpoint, Matt Henry has been in top form and is well supported by Will O’Rourke. Captain Mitch Santner is a top quality spinner, and a master at controlling the scoring rate with a career economy of 4.82. He’s been amongst the wickets and he’s definitely going to be the big threat for India. Together Rachin, Michael Bracewell and Glenn Phillips are more than capable to deliver 20 overs. There really is no scope for a change in the playing XI for the Kiwis.
Apart from Santner, the other man in the XI that India will be worried about is Rachin Ravindra. While others in that line-up are solid, Rachin has the ability to score quickly after getting and he has a solid record against Ravindra Jadeja and Kuldeep Yadav. India will likely be forced to get Varun Chakravarthy early if Rachin gets going.
Does India have a weakness? Perhaps, the only chink in India’s armor is that two of their frontline bowlers, Mohammed Shami and Kuldeep Yadav, haven’t been consistently threatening in this tournament. Even though both have wickets to their names, they are coming back from injury and probably not in the best rhythm.
Considering the pitch conditions in Dubai, India won’t be too worried about the pacer. He is well supported by Hardik Pandya and the four spinners will play a huge role as well. Left-arm wrist spinner Kuldeep Yadav has also taken up the tough job of bowling in the depth. In fact, against Australia, he even bowled in the PowerPlay.
Maybe calling it a weakness is an exaggeration, but New Zealand will look to target these two considering the other options. India’s premier attacking bowler is undoubtedly Varun Chakravarthy’s mystery spin, but left armers Ravindra Jadeja and Axar Patel will be handy in these conditions, particularly against right handers like Kane Williamson.
Who’s the favorite?
It’s hard to argue that India has the upper hand here. Each of India’s spinners are better than their Kiwi counterparts (Varun as compared to Santner, and so on). While Santner is also a handy bat at number 8, he is no match for Ravindra Jadeja’s batting abilities. The only department where New Zealand can boast to have better depth is the fielding, but I am not sure it’s enough to cover up the other two areas.
Also, this New Zealand attack on Dubai’s slow pitches is a bit like India’s attack in the previous WTC Final against the same opposition. Despite being threatening, the line-up overall is just not as well suited to the conditions as their counterparts.
It’s a final and anything can happen, but India will go in as favorites 55-45.
