CWC 2019 - The Real Contenders #3: England
In the third post of this series on the upcoming World Cup, I review the chances of hosts England.
Squad: Eoin Morgan (C), Jason Roy, Jonny Bairstow, Joe Root, Jos Buttler (WK), Moeen Ali, Joe Denly, Tom Curran, Ben Stokes, David Willey, Liam Plunkett, Mark Wood, Chris Woakes, Adil Rashid.
Surprise Omissions: Jofra Archer
Strengths:
Batting- With the exception of Joe Root and Ben Stokes, all English batsmen have a strike rate of 90 or above since the beginning of 2018. In fact, Bairstow, Buttler and Jason Roy consistently scored well over 100 runs every 100 balls in that period. Moeen Ali is no mug with the bat and yet, he only manages to secure the #7 spot in this English batting line-up.
Even Chris Woakes and Adil Rashid can get some runs when needed and this long batting line-up allows England to attack right from the first Powerplay and put up huge totals. Since World Cup 2015, England has put up 13 total of 300+ in 42 innings and 4 of those have been in excess of 400 with 1 total of 399. Of course, this is aided by the conditions in England where 24 out of 67 completed ODI innings since 2017 have seen a score of over 300. But since the World Cup will be England, the hosts are in a great position to use this strength.
Chasing big totals - In the recent 3rd ODI versus Pakistan, England bowled first and conceded 358 runs. Pakistan slowed down a bit towards the end and viewers thought that they missed out on an opportunity to score 400. England came out all guns blazing and chased the target with more than 5 overs to spare. That chase, was the perfect example of England’s capabilities and their belief. Since 2017, England have been asked to chase down a target 24 times (excluding the 4th ODI vs Pak on 05/17) and they have been successful 20 times. Two of the four occasions when England lost where cases when they chasing a target of 360+, so teams batting first will know that their work is cut out when playing against England.
Weaknesses:
Bowling - England’s bowling line-up although not necessarily weak, have consistently shown the tendency to concede big totals. Since 2015, England has conceded 300+ totals in 27 times and ended up on the losing side 14 of those times. Even after setting target of 350+, teams have challenged England and come close to beating them. West Indies lost by only 29 runs even though they were chasing 419 early this year. Similarly, Pakistan got close to winning the 2nd ODI in the ongoing series as well. India, West Indies, Sri Lanka as well as Scotland have all put up scores greater than 350 in the recent past.
This area is certainly the only vulnerability that England have and surely all the teams will look to exploit it. None of the England’s main bowlers have an economy below 5.5 an over since 2018 and that is where they have missed a trick by not picking Jofra Archer. Archer is a gifted bowler with the ability to bowl consistently over 90 mph with great accuracy. He was impressive in the IPL and has caught the eyes of English fans and former cricketers without a doubt. Even Liam Plunkett showered praise on him after he had a solid game against Pakistan. England should have given him a go before announcing their World Cup squad and I would have been tempted to pick him over Mark Wood.
Players to watch: Jonny Bairstow
Recent Form & Prediction: With the two ODI wins against Pakistan, England have the best W/L ratio (slightly better than India) since the start of 2018 with 22 wins and 8 losses in 33 games. They have an impeccable record at home and certainly are the favorites going into the World Cup.
Even though loss of Alex Hales will hurt, England’s long batting line-up should certainly be able overcome most teams in the group stage. I expect England to finish 1st after the round-robin and definitely reach the Finals. Unless they have an off-day in the Finals, there is a good chance that England will win their first ODI World Cup in 2019.