CWC 2019 - The Real Contenders #2: India
If you missed the 1st post of this series around 2019 Cricket World Cup, you can find it here. In the 2nd post of the series, I will look at India’s line up.
Squad: Virat Kohli (C), Rohit Sharma (VC), Shikhar Dhawan, KL Rahul, Vijay Shankar, MS Dhoni (WK), Dinesh Karthik (WK), Kedar Jadhav, Hardik Pandya, Ravindra Jadeja, Bhuvneswar Kumar, Kuldeep Yadav, Yuzvendra Chahal, Mohd. Shami, Jasprit Bumrah
Players to watch: Shikhar Dhawan, Jasprit Bumrah
Surprising omissions: Ambati Rayudu, Rishabh Pant
Key Areas:
Batting
India’s strength in batting is well known - especially at the top of the order. India’s top 3 batsmen are the top 3 scorer in ODI Cricket since the beginning of 2018. No other team boasts of a top 3 who score as consistently and as quickly (19 hundreds since the beginning of 2018 between the 3 of them with each striking at 90+ runs every 100 balls). Dhawan’s incredible record in England and in multi-nation tournaments certainly makes a key player to keep an eye on.
Number 4 was the most-debated squad in this Indian line-up and I have no doubt that Ambati Rayudu should have been selected to play in that position. Skipper Kohli backed him to make the spot his own in Oct 2018 and yet India have not given Rayudu a consistent run. Every series, he plays a couple of games before being dropped and yet he averages 40+ since 2018 and I was certain that his knock of 90 against New Zealand, when India was reeling at 18/4 will cement his place in the line up. However, a couple of good knocks from Vijay Shankar (along with his bowling/fielding abilities) have meant Rayudu is sitting in the reserves. In my mind, there is no doubt a bad call.
The other spot that was tightly contested was that of the 2nd wicket-keeper between Dinesh Karthik and Rishabh Pant. While MS Dhoni has the support of Virat Kohli and the team management, the truth is Dhoni is simply past his best. With the mediocre record in recent years, Dhoni should have been dropped prior to the Australia-NZ series in Jan when he batted himself into form.
With the conditions in England likely to high-scoring, India will likely need someone in the middle order to score quickly - Dhoni as well as Karthik’s strike rate below 80 (since 2018) may not be good enough. That is where India have missed a trick in giving sufficient chances to Rishabh Pant who has played only 5 ODIs and a handful of T20Is without spectacular success. Dropping Pant is certainly not as harsh a call as dropping Rayudu, but I would have still gambled with Pant ahead of Karthik. I fear, that in one of knockout games, India may regret this decision when the top 3 fail and a high score needs to be chased with Dhoni and Karthik in the middle.
Bowling
In Kuldeep, Chahal, Bhuvneshwar, Bumrah, Shami and Jadeja, India have their top 6 wicket takers in ODIs since the beginning of 2018. The first four were obvious selections with consistent performances in last 18-24 months. Shami and Jadeja were out of the one-day team about 1 year ago, but they have done well in the past 6 months to grab the opportunities they got.
Jadeja’s record in England is quite solid and he was an important reason why India why Champion Trophy in 2013 - additionally, Chahal has limited experience of playing in English conditions and therefore, Jadeja’s selection is a smart move although I believe he should not be played ahead of Chahal. Chahal has proved himself to be very useful in series wins in South Africa, New Zealand as well as Australia, so it is important to back him rather than going for Jadeja’s batting.
Similarly, if India play only 2 pacers - Bumrah and Bhuvi should be obvious choices in spite of Shami’s recent performances. Bumrah’s ridiculous economy rate of just over 4.5 runs an over and ability to bowl some deadly yorkers certainly makes him a key part of India’s hopes doing well at the World Cup.
Recent Form & Fixtures
Since the loss to Pakistan in Champions Trophy 2017 Final, India has beaten West Indies, Australia, Sri Lanka and New Zealand at home and away and also beat South Africa in South Africa. They have the best Win/Loss ratio in that period at 2.93, slightly better than England at 2.87. England are, in fact, the only team who has managed to not be beaten by India in ODI series in this duration.
Needless to say, this is a strong Indian team and we can argue whether they made right choices for a couple of positions, but they will not be easy to beat. India will start their World Cup journey by playing South Africa, Australia, New Zealand and then Pakistan respectively. Therefore, they will hope to provide their lesser experienced players like Vijay Shankar and Yuzvendra Chahal with match-practice prior to that, so that they are on the top of their games right away.
Prediction: Even though India start with 4 tough matches at the World Cup - with the quality in this side, they should be navigate the group stage and my guess is that India will finish as one of the Finalists, although may find it hard to overcome England in home conditions.