CWC 2019 - The Real Contenders #4: Australia
Squad: Aaron Finch (C), Usman Khawaja, David Warner, Shaun Marsh, Steve Smith, Glenn Maxwell, Marcus Stoinis, Alex Carey (WK), Mitchell Starc, Nathan Lyon, Adam Zampa, Nathan Coulter-Nile, Pat Cummins, Kane Richardson, Jason Behrendorff
Surprise Omissions: Peter Handscomb
Strengths:
Batting - Australia’s batting line-up is filled with in form batsmen. Skipper Aaron Finch and Usman Khawaja have been the ODI opening pair in the absence of David Warner and they average 49 and 59 respectively since the beginning of 2018. Warner who has been picked as well has been in really good form in T20 leagues around the world and it would be hard to drop him. Shaun Marsh has been consistent at number 3 with 4 hundreds and 3 fifties since beginning of 2018. That position was previously held by former skipper Steve Smith, who finds himself in ordinary form post his ban and dropping him wouldn’t be a bad idea. Having said that, Australia start their campaign against Afghanistan and West Indies which allows them the flexibility to try out Smith before the tougher games begin.
Marcus Stoinis and Glenn Maxwell are a good middle order and Maxwell in particular has been in spectacular form. Over the last couple of the ODI series (in India and UAE), he has been hitting the ball beautifully and has been a game changer. His ability to score quickly and play unconventional cricket is a huge benefit to Australia in addition to his fielding and part time bowling. Both these also provide bowling options and therefore allow Australia to have Alex Carey bat at 7.
Current Form - Since the beginning of 2018, Australia’s W/L ratio has been worse than every team in this World Cup except Pakistan and Sri Lanka with 11 wins in 26 games. However, after losing the ODI series at home to India early this year - they have gone onto 8 off next 10 matches. They surprised India by coming back from 0-2 deficit to win the ODI Series in India 3-2 and then clean swept Pakistan 5-0 in UAE. While Pakistan isn’t a top contender at the moment, beating them 5-0 convincing in conditions they know is a commendable achievement. With this recently gained momentum, Australia have shown just in time they cannot be written off and the defending champions will certainly not be pushovers.
Weaknesses:
Bowling - Australia’s bowling line-up consists of many well known names including Mitchell Starc (Man of the Tournament from 2015 WC), but most of these players have recently had either injury or form issues. Starc used to be Australia’s leader with the ball but since 2018, he has played only 7 ODIs picking 12 wickets at 37 a piece. In fact, none of Australia’s front-line bowlers have played more than 17 games in that period.
Pat Cummins is surely the most threatening quickie in their squad and he has been in good form picking loads of wickets in India. He will be the leader of this attack and will need to play a big role in the absence of Jhye Richardson who was ruled out due to a knee injury. 22 year old Jhye will surely get more chances to play for Australia but his consistent performances will be missed since he got the wickets of quality batsmen like Virat Kohli on multiple occasions.
Nathan Coulter-Nile, Behrendorff and Kane Richardson are the other fast bowlers in the line-up and while they are good bowlers - the fact that they have played 17 ODIs combined since 2018 has to be a concern. Adam Zampa and Nathan Lyon are the spin options in the squad and Zampa in particular is a smart bowler who will likely play ahead of Lyon and will be useful in the middle overs. Zampa and Lyon both average well over 40 with the ball in past 18 months and with the short boundaries and flat tracks in England, they will have their work cut-out.
Players to watch: David Warner, Glenn Maxwell
Prediction: Australia get an easy start to the World Cup with Afghanistan and West Indies to start. With a solid batting line-up, they should be able to challenge most teams in the round-robin and should qualify for the Semi-Finals. They will likely face England or India in the Semis and I think that’s where they will find it hard to progress further.