CWC 2023: The Real Contenders - Part I
With the 13th edition of the Cricket World Cup less than 2 weeks away, here's a deep dive into the format as well as chances of India, South Africa and Pakistan.
With the World Cup just around the corner, I am getting back to a tradition I started back in 2011 - a detailed look at each of the key teams, their form, and their chances at the upcoming tournament. One key difference from previous World Cups though is the fact, that ODIs are the least favored format in cricket these days.
Teams have been playing fewer ODIs than before and often key players are rested to keep them fit and rested for Tests or the two T20 World Cup in the last two years. This makes analysis of the form and team combinations a little more challenging. Nonetheless, I will look at the top 6 teams that have a solid chance of making the semi-finals.
INDIA
Hosts India were arguably the best team in the round-robin stage of the 2019 World Cup and lost the Semi-Finals to New Zealand. By Dec 2022, India already had a solid set of 15 players who had set roles and they were all in good form. The top order had also started playing more aggressively to try and catch up with England’s attacking style, however, injuries to Jasprit Bumrah, KL Rahul, Shreyas Iyer, and Rishabh Pant’s accident forced India to find replacements and back-ups. Luckily, 3 of those 4 players are back from injuries and looking in good touch in the matches they have recently played.
Key Strengths
Just like the previous World Cups, India has a formidable batting line-up that boasts of some of the best the format has ever seen. In recent times, young Shubman Gill has mastered the format with 11 50+ scores (including 5 100s) in his last 17 innings. With India looking to score quicker up top, captain Rohit Sharma has improved his strike rate to 109 since 2022 without letting it impact his average. Gill also scores above 100 runs a ball (an improvement from Shikhar Dhawan’s recent performances) and together they provide the perfect foundation for the players to follow.
The rise of Mohammed Siraj over the past year has been great to see. Since his ODI debut in 2022, Mohammed Siraj has picked up 32 wickets at an average of just 15.9 and striking every 23 deliveries in the first 10 overs of the innings. In fact, his recent efforts have been so outstanding that even Mohammed Shami is not confirmed in the playing XI. His ability to use the new ball to get breakthroughs in a phase where most oppositions are happy to play out Jasprit Bumrah will be critical for India.
Of course, the return of Jasprit Bumrah, KL Rahul, and Shreyas Iyer in the last couple of series is a big boost to India’s chances. All three have proven ODI records and help the others settle into their usual roles as well. There are two others whose return to fitness and form will play a critical role in the upcoming World Cup. First, Hardik Pandya’s ability to bowl 5-8 overs consistently lends some much-needed flexibility to the Indian team. On pitches that spin, he can play the role of the third seamer, and otherwise, he can team up with Jadeja and Shardul to deliver 20 overs for the team.
The other is the return of Kuldeep Yadav’s form. Post the 2019 World Cup, teams had started to use the lack of pace from Kuldeep to adjust to his length or variations and negate the threat. In recent times, Kuldeep has worked to straighten his run-up, quicken his action to bowl a touch quicker, and has been very effective. While Kuldeep is very handy against the top 7 batters, he is even more lethal at cleaning up the tail. He will certainly be a fixture of nearly all India matches in this World Cup.
Key Vulnerabilities
For more than a decade, India’s key issue in LOIs has been the lack of batting depth and that hasn’t really changed much. The 4 best bowlers currently - Bumrah, Shami, Kuldeep, and Siraj - aren’t very useful with the bat, and that forces India to select Shardul Thakur. While Thakur is more than a decent ODI 4th bowler (48 wickets at 26 a piece since 2021), his batting lacks the reliability they would like. Ravi Jadeja is undoubtedly better with the bat, but he has scored at a strike rate of 60 in the last 17 ODI innings since 2021.
While the batting depth may not be needed in every match, and there is Axar Patel available as an alternative, that balance will become crucial when they come up against an aggressive English side, particularly in the knockouts. Without batting depth, the top-order batters are forced to take fewer chances when chasing a big total.
The other aspect where there is scope for improvement is the scoring rate in the final 10 overs. Indian batters have a strike rate of just 126 in the last 10 overs (since 2021), the 4th highest after South Africa, England, and even Pakistan. This is where they will miss Rishabh Pant and his ability to score rapidly from ball 1. In fact, there’s a good chance it’s the reason Suryakumar Yadav (SKY) has managed to find a spot in the 15, even though he is still finding his rhythm in ODIs.
All in all, the team selected for the World Cup is on expected lines with the exception of 1 player. Sanju Samson, with his superb ODI record, is surely a touch unlucky to lose his spot to Suryakumar Yadav (SKY). Although neither Samson nor SKY are expected to be in the starting XI consistently, SKY might be the finisher that India needs in the final overs to give them the final push for a big score.
SOUTH AFRICA
Earlier in the year, South Africa was fighting to automatically qualify for the World Cup. After having managed that, the recent series win versus Australia at home has given the confidence to some of the fans that they might be the “dark horses”. With many talented players and an ability to challenge the best on their day, they definitely have a chance to get into the top 4.
Key Strengths
Similar to India, South Africa have a superb batting line-up. While he hasn’t played as many ODIs this year, captain Temba Bavuma averages just under 80 at a strike rate of 104 with 3 hundreds and 2 fifties since 2022. Even the hard-hitting Quinton de Kock cannot match up to this record in recent times although there’s no doubting what he is capable of.
Since 2022, all 4 batters to follow the openers - Rassie van der Dussen, Aiden Markram, David Miller, and Heinrich Klassen average more than 48 in ODIs. In fact, the last 3 names on that list score these runs at strike rates of 108, 117, and 134 respectively. That is just incredible firepower for the middle and final overs. With 6 teams with a realistic chance of qualifying for the final 4, net run rate can certainly come into play and that’s where South Africa will have an advantage. This South African team has been better strike rate against spin than even England and that will definitely help them against Sri Lanka in Delhi and Australia in Lucknow, two pitches generally known to be more favorable to spinners.
In addition to their batting, South Africa are the only non-Asian team to have 2 quality front-line spinners in the XV. Keshav Maharaj may not be the most threatening spinner in world cricket, however, he is surprisingly good at bowling to his field and keeping the run rate in check with an economy of just 4.57 since 2021. The other option in Tabraiz Shamsi is a more attacking one. While he is more expensive, he picks up a wicket every 30 balls (since 2021), just behind Adam Zampa and Kuldeep Yadav. Although they aren’t expected to play both in every game, this will certainly help South Africa compete with the ball in the middle overs.
Key Vulnerabilities
Quick Anrich Nortje has been superb as a middle-overs enforcer for South Africa. Unfortunately, he is out of his second consecutive World Cup after he was injured for the 2019 edition as well. While Keshav Maharaj can hold an end in the middle overs, Nortje’s raw pace can be particularly useful to break partnerships, and trouble set batters.
In addition, South Africa’s death bowling has not been up to the mark. Amongst the major teams, South Africa has the 2nd worst economy rate (behind New Zealand) at 7.69 runs an over. Sisanda Magala is considered to be one of the best death bowlers in South Africa with changes in pace as well as a solid yorker. Unfortunately, even he has been ruled out of the tournament after playing a game in the recent ODI series versus Australia.
Also, South Africa have played only 40 ODIs since the 2019 World Cup ended, 2nd lowest amongst the major team, and only 3 of these ODIs were held in India. While many of their players have played the IPL or visited for a T20 or Test series, they will need to rely on the likes of Rabada, David Miller, and others to adjust to the conditions quickly. The bowling doesn’t look the best on paper, and they will certainly need their batters to step up and score extra runs to provide a safety net.
PAKISTAN
Pakistan is currently ranked # 2 in ODI cricket, just 2 points behind India. In fact, Pakistan have the best win/loss (with 18 wins and 6 losses) amongst major teams in ODIs since 2022. If you look closer though, Pakistan has played only 36 ODIs since the last World Cup, the least among the major nations, and 15 of these have been against the Netherlands, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Nepal.
Key Strengths
Traditionally, bowling has been Pakistan’s strong suit. Undoubtedly, the leader of the attack is Shaheen Shah Afridi, a fantastic left armer that moves the new ball late and takes regular wickets. He is well supported by Haris Rauf, who usually bowls 1st change for Pakistan. Rauf has a solid yorker but also can bowl the back of the length at a rapid pace to choke the opposition batters. Although he has just 28 ODIs under his belt, he played a lot of T20 cricket and has shown to be a consistent performer. Both Afridi and Rauf are terrific bowlers at the depth as they concede less than 7.5 runs an over in the final 10. Although the quality of the opposition also skews the data, Pakistan averages the lowest with the bowl in the final 10 overs of an ODI since 2022.
Similar to India’s 2011 World Cup squad, this Pakistan team has a number of batters who can roll their arm over and pitch in with 2-3 overs. While they aren’t the most consistent bowlers, the likes of Iftikhar, Agha Salman, and Saud Shakeel allow captain Babar Azam to squeeze in some overs if one of the main bowlers is having an off day. It creates flexibility within the team and puts less stress on the 3rd and 4th bowlers.
Lastly, Pakistan’s batting is very consistent. They average the 2nd highest against spin and the highest against pace with a healthy strike rate of 96. Captain Babar Azam is well supported by Imam Ul Haq, Fakhar Zaman, and wicketkeeper Mohammed Rizwan, all averaging 40+ in ODIs.
Key Vulnerabilities
While they are consistent, the batters do NOT score quickly at the start of the innings or against spin (as the graph in the South Africa section of this piece shows). Iftikhar Ahmed and Shadab Khan have the ability to play strokes and have been scoring at the rate of 111 runs per 100 balls since 2022. However, in this duration, Ahmed has played just 9 ODI innings and Shadab’s only 50 was against a weak West Indian team at home. If the bowlers have a bad day or they are trying to put up a big total against the likes of England or Australia, it will certainly be a challenge.
In what appears to be a case of poor workload management, youngster Naseem Shah has been ruled out of the World Cup. He is an excellent all-phase bowler and while Rauf and Shaheen provide adequate cover in the first and final 10, his ability to unsettle batters with extra bounce and bowl tight overs between 11-40 will certainly be missed. Mohammed Nawaz can bowl some tight overs, but if a big partnership is underway, I doubt Azam will be able to rely on him to get a breakthrough. Shadab Khan can get some wickets in the middle overs, but not nearly at the rate at which Kuldeep, Adam Zampa, or even Sri Lanka’s Theekshana.
Having said all this, Pakistan can never be written off completely. Just like the performance against England in the 2019 edition, they can turn up at any time and challenge any team. The lack of ODIs against top sides and the fact that 5 of their players have played less than 15 ODIs since 2022 (although Hasan Ali was brought in for the last-minute injury to Naseem) shows the unsettled nature of this team. Therefore, even though Pakistan has a good team on paper, I would be surprised to see them go all the way. A more realistic scenario is that they end the group stage in the 5th or 6th position.
In Part II, I will take a look at defending champions England, Australia, and New Zealand. To get an email update for when the blog post is out, please subscribe using the button below, and thanks for reading!