T20 WC 2022: The Real Contender #5 - South Africa
Since 2020, South Africa have won 24 and lost 20 T20Is. On top of that, they didn’t play a single T20I after last year’s World Cup until June, so casual cricket fans can be forgiven for underestimating the South Africans. Despite the ordinary W/L ratio, they are a very well-balanced team. Let’s take a look.
Strengths
Two key strengths that South Africa has going into this World Cup are seam bowling and middle-order batting. With Kagiso Rabada, Wayne Parnell, Anrich Nortje, and Lungi Ngidi in the line-up, South Africa is spoilt for choices. That is a superb attack not just because there are 4 good choices, but they are complimentary to each other. Anrich Nortje can consistently bowl 90+ mph and can execute back-of-a-length (known as hard lengths) deliveries. Lungi Ngidi is a clever bowler who has at least 2 types of slower balls up his sleeve and Wayne Parnell provides a left-arm variation and can be useful with the new ball. Kagiso Rabada hasn’t picked a lot of wickets in the T20Is this year, but he has still gone under 8 an over and can be very effective on his day.
Switching to batting, the numbers 3 to 7 form a fantastic unit and are in great form. Rilee Rossouw has made a comeback to the side in 2022 after honing his skills across the BBL, PSL as well as the Hundred. He strikes at more than 160 runs per 100 balls since 2021 against both spin and pace. Aiden Markram usually bats at 4, and while he isn’t as experienced in franchise cricket as Rossouw, he has shown to be in good form striking at 140+ with 7 fifties in 19 T20I innings since 2021.
Southpaw David Miller has always had a solid game against pace but he has recently improved considerably against spin. In T20s between 2016-2019, Miller’s strike rate versus spin was just 117. Since 2020, that’s gone up to 139 and the dot ball % is just 28. It’s still early days for Tristan Stubbs, but he has shots all around the ground and that’s the Manchester Originals and Mumbai Indians have spent money on him.
At 7, Dwaine Pretorius completed a fantastic middle order but due to injury, he will be replaced by Wayne Parnell. Parnell isn’t as effective with the bat as Pretorius and that impacts South Africa’s batting depth but nonetheless, this is superb middle order and they have scored runs rather quickly in recent times.
Weaknesses
If we are being honest, captain Temba Bavuma has never been a top-tier T20 batter by any standard. He is considered a leader who can contribute and that’s understandable, but the fact that Quinton de Kock hasn’t been close to his best will worry South Africa. They have tried Reeza Hendricks at the top as well but in the 12 T20Is since the last world cup, South Africa’s opening pair have NEVER managed to bat the first 6 overs. And yes, having long partnerships isn’t necessarily a sign of success in T20 batting, but they haven’t been scoring quickly either so it is definitely a sign of concern.
While they don’t bat very deep, South Africa has enough quality in the top 7 to do well in Australian conditions. The only other real concern would be the form of Anrich Nortje, who has gone at 9.5 runs an over in T20Is in 2022. The advantage for South Africa is how their fixtures are laid out. They start by playing Zimbabwe and Bangladesh and that will give them some game time to fix the two concerns mentioned.
Overall Balance and Form
2 solid spinners in Keshav Maharaj and Tabraiz Shamsi round out a good bowling attack for South Africa. Typically, Shamsi goes at just above 7 an over and takes plenty of wickets too (strike rate of 17). Keshav Maharaj is a traditional left-arm finger spinner and certainly doesn’t take as many wickets as Shamsi, but has the ability to bowl tightly in the top 6. Maharaj had a great series v/s India recently and will likely play the game against them in the World Cup too. For some teams (like Pakistan) that don’t score quickly against spin, they could play both spinners as well.
From a form perspective, South Africa have a 7-5 record in 2022 although half of those games were in India. When they toured England, they won the T20I series and showed they could compete with the best. Additionally, with an easier start to the World Cup and the fact that they are better suited to the conditions than Pakistan, South Africa should be able to get to the Semis.
NOTE: Unless otherwise mentioned, all stats are based on T20Is starting in 2020.