T20 WC 2022: The Real Contenders #1 - Australia
A look at the upcoming World Cup's format, playing conditions as well as the preparation of hosts and defending champions Australia.
Format & Playing Conditions
Similar to last year’s T20 World Cup, the upcoming tournament in Australia will start with a qualifying round. Two teams from each of the qualifying groups will go on to the next stage of the tournament. In the next round with 12 teams split across 2 groups, all teams get a chance to play 5 matches each and the top 2 finishers of each group will meet in the Semi-Finals.
Like with South Africa last year, one bad day (or even a few poor overs) could mean 3 teams are tied on points and net run rate could decide the top two. On top of this, T20 is cricket’s most fickle format and that’s why the World Cup will be really tough to predict and fun to watch as neutrals.
Among the teams (other than West Indies and Sri Lanka) playing the qualifying round, Ireland has played a lot more T20 games in 2022 than the others, but they haven’t been the most consistent side. The Netherlands is the other solid contender, but there is a good chance the 2nd round of the World Cup will feature the following groups.
The T20 World Cup will be held in Australia across 7 different venues. Chasing in T20s is generally considered the more advantageous and this was particularly true for certain grounds like Dubai in the last World Cup. However, this doesn’t seem to be true for Australia and that might just negate the importance of winning the toss, which is a good thing.
Most (if not all) Australian grounds have big boundaries and the average 1st innings has ranged between 160-180 for nearly all the venues in the last 2 years. While teams with multiple hard-hitting batters are usually at an advantage in T20s, such targets will keep teams that have limited such resources interested too and we should see a number of close games.
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Team Australia
Going into last year’s T20 World Cup, Australia was ranked 6th in T20Is. They ended up winning every toss except 1 (v/s England) in the league stage and were crowned champions. It was highly unexpected but as hosts this year, there will be a lot of expectations from the team. Only 1 out of the squad of 15 was not part of last year’s win and that’s Tim David, who is yet to debut for Australia.
Batting
Batting against pace is Australia’s strength. In T20Is since 2020, only 1 batter out of the likely top 7 has a strike rate below 135 and that’s Glenn Maxwell. Matthew Wade leads the pack at 165, hitting a boundary every 4.2 balls and Marcus Stoinis is also solid, striking at nearly 150. While Maxwell’s recent T20I numbers v/s pace isn’t the best, he is a superb player of spin (striking at 142) and provides a very good balance to the side by bowling a couple of overs nearly every game.
Australia’s key area of concern will be the ability to score against spin, especially at the top. Aaron Finch and Steve Smith score just above a run a ball, while Mitch Marsh strikes at 113. Prior to the start of the T20 World Cup, Australia will play 3 series and that’s where they need to give a chance to Tim David. He is a fantastic hitter of pace (striking at 177) but also has the ability to score quickly against spin at more than 130 runs per 100 balls. While it’s unlikely to happen, Tim David in the side in place of Steve Smith would ensure coverage against both pace and spin during all phases of the innings.
Two of their front-line bowlers in Pat Cummins and Mitch Starc have the ability to swing their bats and get some quick runs too. With these two coming in at 8 and 9, there is ample depth in the batting line-up.
Bowling & All-rounders
Josh Hazlewood is an ever-improving T20 bowler and strikes every 15 balls in the PowerPlay. The only bowler (to take 8 or more wickets) who has a better economy rate at the start of the innings is Jasprit Bumrah. Both Mitch Starc and Pat Cummins haven’t been among the wickets in the Powerplay, but they don’t leak a lot of runs either, usually going for about 7.5 runs an over.
Depending on the opposition, they could play Ashton Agar to slip in an over or two. He has bowled at an economy of 6.41 in the powerplay and that gives them enough coverage at the top even when playing 2 lead spinners. Adam Zampa is a smart T20 bowler. While his economy since 2020 is a little higher (7.26) as compared to his career economy of 6.79 - he has continued to take wickets at the same rate. Glenn Maxwell does a good job as the 2nd spin option and he is very likely to bowl at least 2 overs each game. Mitch Marsh and Marcus Stoinis can also chip in with 1-2 overs each game and that allows Australia to play with just 4 main bowlers.
One other concern is the coverage during the last 5 overs of the innings. None of Australia’s 4 likely starters are death bowling specialists and concede runs at 9 runs an over or more. Australia will hope that Mitch Starc will regain his form and be able to execute those yorkers, or they might need to switch to Kane Richardson, who relies on change of pace to keep the batters guessing.
Form
In the limited games they have played since the last T20 World Cup, Australia has shown good form and even beat Sri Lanka in Sri Lanka. They also have 8 upcoming games against India, West Indies, and England to get some game time to players like Tim David and figure out which 4 bowlers to start with.
While England will definitely challenge them in the group stage, I would expect them to still make it to the Semis while playing in home conditions. But the limited resources at the death and potentially an extra fielder in the circle (due to the new over-rate rule) for the last over could severely impact Australia’s chances in the knockouts.
NOTE: All stats are based on T20Is from 2020 to Sept-15th 2022. Tim David’s stats are based on T20s during the same period.
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