CWC 2023: The Real Contenders - Part 2
A look into the strengths and vulnerabilities of England, Australia and New Zealand as we get ready for the competition to begin.
In case you missed it, Part 1 of the series focused on hosts India, Pakistan, and South Africa and their chances at the upcoming World Cup. Read here.
NEW ZEALAND
If there’s one team that has punched above their weight at ICC tournaments in recent years, it’s New Zealand. They were almost winners of the 2019 WC, finalists at the 2021 T20 World Cup, winners of the inaugural WTC, and semi-finalists at the 2022 T20 World Cup. Two things came together to make this happen - their golden generation of cricketers peaked about the same time and a number of these tournaments (all except the 2021 T20 World Cup) were in conditions that were friendly to their style. This isn’t to take credit away from them, obviously, their preparation was a key reason for success, and the execution on the field was solid but conditions certainly were in their favor. That’s certainly not the case this time around.
Key Vulnerabilities
The 2nd highest wicket-taker of the previous World Cup with 21 scalps, Lockie Ferguson was in superb form going into the 2019 edition. Ferguson took 13 wickets at an average of less than 20 and an economy of 4.3 an over in the middle overs of the 2019 edition. He is just not as effective anymore. Not only is he taking far fewer wickets since 2022, he is going for a lot more runs and this leaves a gap in that 1st change position for New Zealand. The experienced Tim Southee is also in the squad but recovering from injury, and although the backup (Kyle Jamieson) is a quality bowler himself, he has barely played outside of New Zealand.
There are 60 batters (amongst the top 9 teams in this World Cup) who have scored more than 400 runs since 2022. When sorted by strike rate, Michael Bracewell is the only Kiwi in the top 25 of this list. His injury is a big blow for New Zealand. The part-time off-spinner would have been a useful 2nd spin option for Kane Williamson (after Mitchell Santner), but even more importantly, his power-hitting abilities (as shown earlier in the year in India) at number 7 will be dearly missed by the team. Rachin Ravindra, Glenn Phillips, and Daryl Mitchell will really need to step up for New Zealand to have a realistic chance of getting those extra runs or chasing big totals.
The other limitation of this New Zealand is the lack of a quality spinner. Mitchell Santner is a good defensive bowler who usually manages to keep the score in check, somewhat like Daniel Vettori. However, it’s unclear who the 2nd option is. Ish Sodhi hasn’t been great and Rachin Ravindra will likely play because of his batting rather than bowling. With Ferguson’s ordinary form, it’s really unclear who Williamson will turn into when batters put together a partnership in the middle overs.
Key Strengths
The one aspect where New Zealand has not regressed since the last World Cup is new ball bowling. Since 2022, Matt Henry averages just 20 at a miserly economy of 3.86 runs an over. His partner Trent Boult averages 10.6 per wicket with an economy of 3.7 (although he has played fewer games) in the first 10 overs of the game. This opening duo took 31 wickets in 9 games in the last edition and they will need to keep up with that pace.
Also, New Zealand will play two tough opponents, India and Australia, at the Dharamshala ground. While there have been only 4 ODIs at Dharamshala (and none since 2017), 3 of those have been low-scoring and generally, this venue is supposed to be conducive to swing and seam, which New Zealand tend to enjoy. Therefore, this will give New Zealand a chance to take some early wickets and put the Indian and Australian middle orders under some pressure. If the Kiwis can win one of these two matches while ensuring they don’t drop any points against Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh, they might just be in the running for a spot in the final 4.
AUSTRALIA
Australia are a very experienced side with 7 of the 15 members already World Cup winners from 2015. Add to that talented young guns like Cameron Green, this is a very well-balanced side. The most consistent side in World Cup history surely cannot be taken lightly.
Key Strengths
To start with the ball, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood, and Pat Cummins are an incredible all-format pace attack. Starc’s incredible body of work, including Man of the Series performance in the 2015 World Cup win, makes him one of the all-time ODI greats. Both he and Pat Cummins have been superb with the new ball with 3rd and 8th-best strike rates since 2022. Josh Hazlewood’s numbers aren’t impressive of late, but he is certainly a capable bowler, and with options such as Cameron Green and Glenn Maxwell, they have back-up options depending on the opposition and the conditions.
When it comes to spinners, there is little doubt that Adam Zampa is currently the best LOI spinner among the teams outside the sub-continent. While he’s had a couple of ordinary games in the recent series in South Africa, his form since the 2019 World Cup has been outstanding. He was a key part of the 2021 T20 World Cup win and picked 62 ODI wickets at 20.6 between 2020 and 2022. Then comes Glenn Maxwell, a smart cricketer with a lot of experience in India. He can bowl almost anytime between overs 1 and 40 and provides a decent 2nd spin option. In the warm-up game against Pakistan, Australia tried out Marnus Labuschange, Steve Smith, and even David Warner. They might be brought in if they are looking to try a couple of overs of leg spin to a particular right-hander, but otherwise, their role with the ball will be quite limited.
In addition to the options mentioned above, Australia also has Cameron Green, Marcus Stoinis, and Mitchell Marsh (when fit) to provide some backup medium-pace options. Overall, this provides the captain with plenty of bowling options and if one of the main bowlers is having an off-day, there are a few options to manage that quota.
Key Vulnerabilities
After he scored 2 100s and 4 50s at a strike rate of 127 opening the batting since 2022, Australia were set on the Travis Head as Warner’s partner at the top. Due to his fractured hand, Travis Head is unavailable for the first few matches. Although he is still with the team and being monitored, Australia will have to move Mitchell Marsh up the order. Marsh has only opened the batting in ODIs 6 times (all in 2023), and while he has done well, it also opens up the middle-order slots.
Australia’s key issue with batting is their middle order. Steve Smith will bat at 3, and while he has been scoring runs consistently, he has been doing so at a pretty ordinary strike rate. Marnus Labuschange was recently added to the World Cup squad and will likely bat at 4 where he has batted the most. Since 2022, Marnus averages 33 at a strike rate of 90 at the number 4, so he scores reasonably quickly, he doesn’t get as many runs. In fact, amongst all the teams at this World Cup, the only teams that Australia’s numbers 3, 4, and 5 have outbatted are the Netherlands and Afghanistan. Marcus Stoinis (who can bat at 5 as well) hasn’t scored a fifty in ODIs since 2019. Of course, these numbers will likely get better as they return to a full-strength squad, but it’s the combination just doesn’t feel settled.
The other issue for Australia is one that’s completely out of their control. They start the World Cup by playing against India, South Africa, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan. Of those, the one against India is in Chennai, and the 2nd and 3rd matches are at Lucknow, known for their slow turning pitches. Aussie batters that typically enjoy pace and bounce will find it tough to play here, particularly against the quality spinners of Sri Lanka. Therefore, Australia will need to make sure that they don’t slip in these 4 games spread across the first 12 days of their campaign. If they perform to their potential, I would expect them to win 3 of these 4 and go through to the next round by dropping no other games except England.
ENGLAND
Defending champions England have continued to try and play the brand of limited-overs cricket they started after the 2015 World Cup debacle. That has allowed them to win the previous World Cup in 2019 (although narrowly), as well as the 2022 T20 World Cup. Alongside India and Australia, this is one of the most experienced teams in this World Cup, with 8 of the players from the previous edition still in the final 15.
Key Strengths
England’s key strength remains their long batting line-up and the firepower they possess. As mentioned in the 1st part of this series, England is the 2nd fastest team against spin. In fact, English batters have the highest strike rate (91.9) in the first 40 overs of the innings, marginally better than South Africa (91.3). Only in the final 10 overs of the game, do South Africa outperform the English. When looking at batters with the best strike rates since 2022 against the top 7 teams, 4 English players (Ben Stokes, Liam Livingstone, David Malan, and Jos Buttler) all appear in the top 20.
England’s average at the top (against the top 7 teams) in recent times hasn’t been great, but the return of Jonny Bairstow will help. Bairstow is a destroyer of bowling attacks with a career strike rate of 103 and he was England’s 2nd highest run scorer in the 2019 campaign. Add to that list, the likes of Harry Brook followed by Moeen Ali and Sam Curran in the lower order, the hitting ability of this side is genuinely envious.
Similar to Australia, there are a lot of allrounders in the English camp. For medium-pace options, they have Chris Woakes, Sam Curran, and David Willey who can contribute with the bat alongside Ben Stokes. Moeen Ali, Liam Livingstone, Joe Root as well as Harry Brook provide some spinning options. They are definitely not the highest quality but might be worth turning to on some of the turning tracks in India. Overall, there is a sense of versatility with many batters who can bat in different positions and even if there are any injuries, England will have options to play with.
Key Vulnerabilities
Over the last 5 years, England have consistently gone with the batting-heavy approach. This has meant, they have sacrificed the quality of the bowling attack. England’s economy rate of 8.23 in the last 10 overs since 2022 (matches v/s top 7 only) is only 2nd to the Netherlands amongst the teams participating in the World Cup. Sam Curran did a good job in the victorious campaign at the 2022 T20 World Cup, but he definitely has days when he gets hit all over the park. Jofra Archer’s absence hurts England in this regard since he played a stellar role in the 2019 World Cup.
The other issue is the form of Adil Rashid. While Rashid has a proven record in both ODIs and T20Is, since 2022, he has been amongst the most expensive spinners while striking at nearly the same rate as Glenn Maxwell. Moeen Ali is the front-runner to be the 2nd spinner and even he doesn’t do much better. From a planning perspective, it would have been best to give the youngster Rehan Ahmed some more games and see if there was potential to bring him to the World Cup. Mark Wood has the ability to keep the runs down with his express pace, but he isn’t a big wicket-taker in ODIs. Additionally, Sam Curran and Chris Woakes will not get the same assistance from pitches that they are used to in England.
The other issue with England is the lack of match practice. Joe Root is a superb accumulator in the middle overs, but he has scored just under 400 ODI runs since 2020. Ben Stokes had retired from ODIs and has a handful of games under his belt as well. While Jonny Bairstow will be a definite starter in the XI, he too has just 8 ODI innings since 2022. England have spent a lot of time trying new players and resting their main players in this ODI cycle, so while there is a lot of talent in this XV, they haven’t really come together and played their specific roles.
It’s worth noting that the English have a nice, smooth schedule at the World Cup with 3 of their first 5 games against Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. Obviously, considering the spinners in those line-ups they can’t take them lightly but it will certainly help to ease them into rhythm prior to the key games against India, Australia, and Pakistan.